There was a roughly two-year gap between the second and third iPhone SE models, launched in April 2020 and March 2022 respectively, so it would be reasonable to hope that a fourth model might make an appearance in spring next year. But the latest word from the analyst grapevine is that it won’t appear until 2025 at the earliest.

In a research note shared with MacRumors, Barclays analysts Blayne Curtis and Tom O’Malley this week said that, based on multiple conversations with Apple’s supply-chain partners, the company is unlikely to release a new iPhone SE in 2024.

The news will be a disappointment for some (although perhaps not as much of a disappointment as the third-gen SE) but there could be wider implications for Apple’s smartphone line-up. The analysts note that a delay in the launch would suggest a similar delay in the development of Apple’s in-house 5G modem. At this rate, they say, even the iPhone 16 handsets may feature Qualcomm modems; good news for Qualcomm, but bad news for Apple and its quest to lower costs and increase its granular control of iPhone componentry.

This far from launch it’s difficult to reach concrete conclusions about the likely timeframe. Before the Barclays note was circulated, the analyst community was divided on the question of Apple’s fourth iPhone SE. Ross Young, a highly reliable displays expert, has predicted a launch in 2024; Jeff Pu has said it will arrive in 2025; and the widely respected Ming-Chi Kuo has claimed that the fourth-gen SE currently being worked on won’t ever be sold at all.

Kuo added that, if testing doesn’t go the way Apple wants, the 5G modem “may be pushed back to 2026 or later.”

Of course, there’s still plenty of time for plans to change. Keep up with the latest news and rumors with our regularly updated iPhone SE 4 superguide.