Three weeks into the iPhone 17 cycle, global iPhone lead time data indicates that demand is slightly higher than last year. Veteran Apple analyst Gene Munster predicts a modest return to iPhone unit growth next year, surpassing the Street’s 5% growth consensus.
Gene Munster for GeneMunster.com:
Three weeks after the release date, iPhone 17 lead times globally (eight countries) were 2.29 weeks, compared to iPhone 16 at 2.02 weeks, accounting for a 13% gap. That’s the same 13% gap we observed two weeks ago (2.45 weeks, compared to iPhone 16 at 2.16 weeks). The bottom line is that three weeks in, lead times this year are about 13% longer than last year…
I expect a fractional miss on the September iPhone whisper number, but this will be more than offset by positive December guidance and estimates moving above the whisper for FY26…
I expect September to come in at 9% growth — above the printed estimate of 7% but below the whisper of 10%. Overall, I would consider that outcome good enough, since attention will likely shift to December guidance, which I expect to come in ahead of both the published estimates and the whisper number.
For the December quarter, the Street is currently expecting 7.4% growth, a 0.4% increase from a month ago. I believe the whisper number has reached 9%. Apple likely will not give detailed iPhone guidance for December but will provide enough direction for investors to back into a growth rate. The bottom line is that I expect the December iPhone revenue guide to be above 10%.
For FY26, expectations call for 5% growth (unchanged over the past two weeks). My sense is that the whisper number for FY26 still hovers around the published 5% estimate, given the wide gap between the December quarter and the full year. In the end, I now expect FY26 growth to exceed 8%.
MacDailyNews Take: If so, that’s good news for AAPL in 2026.
Apple will release Q425 results on Thursday, October 30, 2025 after market close, right around 4:30 p.m. PDT / 1:30 p.m. EDT.
Apple’s conference call to discuss Q425 results and business updates is scheduled right after, on October 30, 2025 at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET. It can be listened to live here.
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