Apple’s stock is poised for a lift as longtime Apple analyst Gene Munster anticipates a robust December quarter guide that could underscore sustained iPhone growth. After a prolonged period of stagnation, the device’s performance has rebounded sharply, setting the stage for accelerated growth through 2025. This resurgence, Munster writes, is driven by strategic pull-forwards and favorable market signals, positioning Apple to exceed consensus forecasts and likely reward investors.
Gene Munster for GeneMunster.com:
I expect the favorable December guide to be a positive for shares of AAPL.
Taking a step back, the iPhone is on a roll. Beginning in the December quarter of 2022 through March of 2025, growth had been mostly flat, averaging a 0.5% y/y decline. In June, however, it sprang back to life, rising 13%, aided in part by a couple of percentage points of growth (Deepwater estimates) from customers pulling forward purchases ahead of potential U.S. tariffs. Cook noted that roughly 1% of the company’s overall 10% growth came from this pull-forward effect.
For the September quarter, the Street now expects 9% y/y iPhone growth, up from roughly 6–7% just after the prior quarter’s report. A closer look at estimate revisions shows most of the change occurred in the first three weeks of September. Since then, iPhone-related news has continued to be positive, even though analysts have not materially adjusted the consensus. Notable indicators including JD.com comments from China, improved lead times across the board, and third-party data from Counterpoint, suggest September will be a strong quarter.
I believe the recent positive developments have raised the bar for this print. My guess is the whisper number is around 10% growth.
For the December quarter, Street expectations call for 6% growth, which I sense aligns with buy-side expectations. I expect iPhone commentary on the earnings call for December will indicate growth above 6%, closer to 8%.
MacDailyNews Take: The future looks bright, and growing brighter, for Apple shareholders!
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