Morgan Stanley analysts, led by Erik Woodring, are growing more optimistic about Apple’s iPhone 17 sales potential, raising their fiscal 2026 iPhone revenue forecast by 4% to $230.3 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $220 billion. The increase is driven primarily by stronger expected unit sales, with higher average selling prices also contributing.
Britney Nguyen for MarketWatch:
In the analysts’ view, the base iPhone 17 model is “a compelling upgrade option for older iPhone users that seek a capable yet relatively affordable device,” and lead times — the amount of time between an order being placed and being delivered — are getting longer for that model. They have a sense that initial demand for Apple’s new model is up relative to a year ago.
But Apple’s stock is up about 20% over the past three months, and the Morgan Stanley team thinks the stock price already factors in the strong early iPhone 17 demand. The path to further gains depends on clearing a higher bar, and the analysts think that’s possible, lifting their price target to $298.
Right now, what’s driving the iPhone 17 cycle are users looking for an upgrade. But next year could feature Apple’s first foldable iPhone and six new iPhone launches in the iPhone 18 cycle, which could entice consumers further and spur high-single-digit iPhone revenue growth for fiscal 2027 — even without factoring in the potential for artificial-intelligence features to spur upgrades.
Under the analysts’ bull case, which sees the stock going to $376, Apple would have to ship 270 million iPhones and top $10 in earnings per share for fiscal year 2027. In Morgan Stanley’s view, that target is “achievable if foldables and AI catalyze even stronger demand than we are contemplating in our base case.”
MacDailyNews Take: Come on, Morgan Stanley bull case!
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