Ming-Chi Kuo via X (Grok AI translation from Chinese):
There have always been rumors in the market about Intel becoming a supplier of advanced processes for Apple, but this rumor has always lacked visibility. However, my latest industry survey shows that the visibility of Intel becoming a supplier of advanced processes for Apple has significantly improved recently.
Apple previously signed an NDA with Intel and obtained the PDK 0.9.1GA for the advanced process 18AP. Currently, key simulation and research projects (such as PPA, etc.) are progressing as expected, and they are awaiting the PDK 1.0/1.1 that Intel is expected to release in 1Q26. Apple’s plan is for Intel to start shipping the lowest-tier M processors using the 18AP advanced process as early as 2Q-3Q27, but the actual situation will depend on the development progress after obtaining PDK 1.0/1.1.
Currently, Apple’s lowest-tier M chips are mainly used in MacBook Air and iPad Pro, with a combined shipment volume of about 20 million units in 2025. Due to the possibility that MacBook Air shipments in 2026 may be affected by a new low-priced version of MacBook equipped with iPhone processors, the shipment volume of lowest-tier M processors in 2026 and 2027 is expected to be 15-20 million units.
The order volume for lowest-tier M processors is small, so it has absolutely no impact on TSMC’s fundamentals and its leading advantages in the coming years. However, this order holds significant declarative and trend significance for Apple and Intel.
1. For Apple, in addition to strongly supporting the “Made in America” policy vigorously promoted by the Trump administration, although it is evident that it will still need to heavily rely on TSMC’s advanced processes in the future, it still needs to find a second supplier to meet supply chain management requirements.
2. For Intel, the significance of securing advanced process orders from Apple far exceeds the actual contribution of this order to revenue and profits. Although Intel will still be unable to compete with TSMC in the coming years, this means that the worst is over for the IFS business, and in the future, the 14A or more advanced processes may secure more orders from Apple and other first-tier customers, with the long-term outlook turning positive.
MacDailyNews Take: It’s a win-win: Fosters American manufacturing while creating a second supplier of low-end chips made stamped via a less advanced process.
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The post Intel expected to start shipping Apple’s lowest-tier M processors as early as 2027 – Ming-Chi Kuo appeared first on MacDailyNews.
